Oncology

Clinical Study

A Prognostic Model to Predict Clinical Outcomes with First-Line Gemcitabine-Based Chemotherapy in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer

Yi J.H.a · Lee J.a · Park S.H.a · Lee K.T.b · Lee J.K.b · Lee K.H.b · Choi D.W.c · Choi S.-H.c · Heo J.-S.c · Lim D.H.d · Park Y.S.a · Lim H.Y.a · Kang W.K.a · Park K.a · Park J.O.a

Author affiliations

Divisions of aHematology-Oncology and bGastroenterology, Department of Medicine, and Departments of cSurgery and dRadiation Oncology, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea

Keywords: Pancreatic cancerPrognostic modelGemcitabineChemotherapy

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Oncology 2011;80:175–180
https://doi.org/10.1159/000328449

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Article / Publication Details

First-Page Preview
Abstract of Clinical Study

Received: November 19, 2010
Accepted: February 23, 2011
Published online: June 24, 2011
Issue release date: July 2011

Number of Print Pages: 6
Number of Figures: 1
Number of Tables: 3

ISSN: 0030-2414 (Print)
eISSN: 1423-0232 (Online)

For additional information: https://www.karger.com/OCL

Abstract

Objective: Our aim was to devise a prognostic model for advanced pancreatic cancer based on clinical parameters. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 298 patients who received gemcitabine-based chemotherapy from January 1999 to November 2008. Results: The median survival of all patients was 7 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 6.2–7.8]. Multivariate analysis revealed poor prognostic factors for overall survival such as the presence of liver metastasis [p < 0.001, hazard ratio (HR) 2.628, 95% CI 1.620–4.264], the presence of ascites or peritoneal carcinomatosis (p = 0.005, HR 1.783, 95% CI 1.194–2.661), serum C-reactive protein levels >1.2 mg/dl (p = 0.021, HR 1.568, 95% CI 1.070–2.300), and serum albumin levels <3.5 g/dl (p = 0.021, HR 1.701, 95% CI 1.085–2.667). Of 298 patients, 168 patients (56.4%) were categorized as low-risk with 0 or 1 risk factor, 80 patients (26.8%) were categorized as intermediate-risk with 2 risk factors, and 50 patients (16.8%) were categorized as high-risk with 3 or 4 risk factors. The median survival duration for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups was 10.0 months (95% CI 8.7–11.3), 6.7 months (95% CI 5.7–7.7), and 4.4 months (95% CI 3.2–5.6), respectively. Conclusions: This prognostic model could help to select treatment for patients in clinical practice, and these risk-adapted treatment strategies should be further investigated in prospective studies in such patient populations.

© 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel



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Article / Publication Details

First-Page Preview
Abstract of Clinical Study

Received: November 19, 2010
Accepted: February 23, 2011
Published online: June 24, 2011
Issue release date: July 2011

Number of Print Pages: 6
Number of Figures: 1
Number of Tables: 3

ISSN: 0030-2414 (Print)
eISSN: 1423-0232 (Online)

For additional information: https://www.karger.com/OCL

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2011, Vol.80, No. 3-4

July 2011

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